CincyForecast.com

Winter Storm Update (7:30pm)

The afternoon model package has arrived, and shows a very impressive output! Most spit out a good 7-10″ across the area, with isolated 11-12″ amounts! Everything is right on track with my forecast, so there are no real changes to talk about. The ULL (upper-level low), currently located over central MO, will continue to slide southeast then east as it approaches the tri-state. Most models track it through north-central KY, which is exactly where it needs to go to have a large snow event across the tri-state. The Gulf of Mexico is now open for business as the low is already tapping moisture from it. This added moisture will allow for the snow to become very widespread and heavy. We’re still on track for a start time between midnight-3am, with scattered snow showers possible at any time before that. By sunrise, expect a solid 2-3″ on the ground, with several more inches to come after that!

Winter Storm Update (2:30pm)

Another winter storm is headed for the tri-state! The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING effective midnight tonight through 6am Tue. An area of low pressure, currently sliding SE out of the Plains, will move in late tonight. Expect snow, heavy at times, to develop after midnight (though flurries/snow showers are possible this evening). The snow will continue through much of Mon as the area of low pressure (and associated ULL) slides through. Given the amount of energy and lift progged to be in place by the models, spotty thundersnow (thunder/lightning w/ blinding snowfall rates) is a possibility. The heaviest snow will begin to wind down tomorrow evening, with occassional light snow continuing through much of Tuesday. All in all, expect a solid 6-10″ of snow area-wide from this storm, with localized amounts close to a foot. Given the fact that most areas already have a foot or so on the ground from pervious storms, clean-up will be a much longer process this time. There is just not much room left to clear/plow another large snowfall. As you all know, I don’t “chicken little” weather events unless truely necessary. This is one of those times. Due to the reasons stated above, this storm will more than likely shut-down the city and its surrounding communties. Assuming my forecast verifies, I see no way any schools will be open on Tue. It’s “Kroger-time” if you haven’t done so already…

Winter Storm Update (1:00am)

What a storm! The main event dropped a solid 4-7″ across the entire tri-state through midday Tue, with hazardous road conditions present for a good portion of the day. The lull in the action ended Tue evening as a heavy burst of snow pushed into the tri-state, dropping a quick inch and producing whiteout conditions. Since that burst, we have seen a general light snow, which is further aggravating the clean-up efforts (helping to re-freeze the water on roads). To make matters worse, most locations have fallen into the low teens, which is making salt worthless (becomes ineffective below 15). On top of that, winds have been very gusty (40mph+ gusts), causing significant blowing/drifting. Another batch of moderate to heavy snow is closing in on the tri-state from the west, and should be overhead by 3am. Like earlier Tue evening, expect another quick inch or two of accumulation, with near-whiteout conditions being a good bet. By midday, most areas will have received another 2-3″ of snow on top of the impressive totals from yesterday. I expect all schools to be closed, as most roads will be slick at best. Hamilton County remains under a LEVEL TWO SNOW EMERGENCY, which means that travel is strongly discouraged (unless it’s ABSOLUTELY necessary). The snow will wind down by this afternoon, but the wind will not. Expect significant blowing/drifting through the day with gusts exceeding 40mph being the norm. If you absolutely have to travel, make sure you take it slow and allow extra time to get to your destination…

Winter Storm Update (10:45am)

Snow, heavy at times, continues across the entire tri-state. Most areas have reported 3″ or so, with another inch or so likely before we see a temporary lull this afternoon. Snow will move back in later this evening/tonight as an ULL (upper-level low) slides overhead. Given that temps at all levels of the atmosphere will be much colder by then, snow to liquid ratios will be much higher. In basic terms, that will allow a much smaller amount of liquid than we are seeing now to produce a couple inches of snow. By tomorrow morning, I expect that we will have seen another 2-3″, which when combined with this first round of snow, will lead to totals up to 9″ for the immediate tri-state. The other big story tonight will be the wind. As the deepening low pressure slides to our NE, the gradient will tighten between it and the strong area of high pressure over the Plains, leading to gusty winds (40mph+). Such winds will cause significant blowing/drifting of the fallen snow, leading to near-blizzard conditions. Like today, I expect many closings tomorrow, as roads will still be very hazardous/slick by morning.

Winter Storm Update (2:40am)

Snow, heavy at times, continues across the entire tri-state. Most areas inside the 275-loop on south have exceeded the one inch mark already, with everyone shooting for 3-4″ by daybreak. With temps in the lower to middle 20s, all snow is sticking, thus roads are already very slick. All schools will be closed today, with snow emergencies likely in effect by sunrise. Stay home…

The ULL (upper-level low) seems to have slid a bit further south than progged by the models, which means that a track through NKY is more likley than the originally thought passage right over the tri-state. If this change comes to fruition, expect 2-4″ more than my forecast shows…

Winter Storm Update (1:45am)

The atmosphere has saturated across the entire tri-state, so everyone should be seeing snow at this time. I’m currently reporting moderate snow with 3/4 to 1/2 mile visibility. I’d say we’re nearing an inch already here in Montgomery (NE Ham CO), with another 2-3″ expected by sunrise. I’ve tapped into the radar at CVG, and it shows a nice coverage of snow across the entire tri-state (with embedded moderate banding):

Winter Storm Update (12:00am)

Light to moderate (even heavy at times) snow is closing in on the tri-state, with flakes being reported as close as Northern Kentucky. Expect the leading edge to reach the metro by 1am, and the east side by 3am. Once the snow commences, it will become steady rather quickly. Given the very cold air/ground temps, all snow will accumulate, even on treated surfaces. As I’ve been saying all day, I expect all schools to be closed Tue, with many having delays/closings on Wed as well. Take it slow out there tomorrow if you ABSOLUTELY have to drive.

WINTER STORM WARNING!

The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING, effective midnight tonight through 6pm Wed. An area of low pressure, currently developing to our south, will begin to slide NE towards the tri-state. Out ahead of it, widespread precipitation will develop in the form of snow. I expect the first flakes to hit the ground between 2-3am, quickly becoming steady. The snow, heavy at times, will continue through the late afternoon hours before it winds down in evening. By then, we will have a solid 3-6″. The snow will wind down for a brief period (bit of a lull in the action), but will once again commence tomorrow night as the ULL (upper-level low) spins overhead. With the added energy and lift tomorrow night, expect another couple inches of snow. In total (by Wed AM), all of the immediate tri-state will see a solid 5-8″, with 8″+ just to the north/northwest of the metro. In addition, with an abundance of energy at the mid/upper levels, spotty thundersnow is possible midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening. If that occurs, rapid accumulation in a very short period of time (2″+ an hour rates) would be likely. As for schools, I expect all to be closed tomorrow. A delay would be inefficient as the snow will continue through the afternoon (same goes for an early-dismissal). Roads will become slick and hazardous tomorrow, continuing through much of Wed as temps will be well below freezing (harder to melt/clear). I will have hourly (bi-hourly if necessary) updates posted through the night, so stay tuned!

MAJOR WINTER STORM IMMINENT (3:30am update)

*WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY*

Temps across the tri-state are in the lower to middle 30s at this time, which is allowing for most of the precip to fall as light rain. I’ve been in contact with weather observers across the tri-state and there are spotty reports of sleet (most recently in SW Ham CO), though it won’t accumulate much due to the marginal surface temperatures. Most of the precip should fall as rain through midday as a brief tounge of warm air punches into the tri-state. However, as the area of low pressure begins to slide a bit further east, temps at all levels (surface to the upper-levels) will begin to crash, allowing the rain to change to snow. This should occur between 2-5pm (2pm for the NNW counties and 5pm for the SSE counties). Once this changeover to snow occurs, it will come down fairly heavily through tomorrow morning, with significant accumulations for everyone (see graphic below). Roads should be in decent shape through 4pm in most spots, but after that, expect conditions to deteriorate rather rapidly (about an hour or so after the changeover occurs). The main event will occur this evening through tomorrow morning when a large swath of moderate to heavy snow will slide through. Given the impressive dynamics in place/plenty of lift to work with, I wouldn’t rule out spotty thundersnow (enhanced bands of snow containing thunder/lightning). I don’t think that will be widespread, but don’t be surprised if you see a flash of lightning or hear a clap of thunder. If all goes as planned, expect very hazardous road conditions through Saturday (and even into Sun, depending on how much we end up with). Plan on not going anywhere Saturday…

Winter Storm Update (2:15pm)

Light to moderate snow will continue for another couple hours for the Cincy metro (and surrounding communities), with total accumulations of 3-5″. Roads are a mess in most spots, with many accidents being reported. Unfortunately, a deadly accident has occured in Franklin County (near Brookville) when two cars collided on US 52. Hamilton County is now under a LEVEL ONE SNOW EMERGENCY, which means that roads are in fairly bad shape, so extreme caution is urged (stay home if it’s not necessary to drive). A strong cold front is closing in on the tri-state, which will usher in colder temps and increased winds. Blowing and drifting of the fallen snow is likely today-tomorrow as wind gusts top out around 30mph.