Meteorological Spring (began March 1st) sure has been living up to its name as of late! We saw our first true taste of mild weather this past week with highs in the middle to upper 60s, which was much-welcome after the recent snowy/cold winter! Now I know this weekend was less than desirable with highs in the 40s, as well as what seemed like non-stop rain. HOWEVER, after tomorrow (Monday), we’ll once again be under the dominance of high pressure, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the 50s/60s through Saturday! Before we get to that, we’ll have to deal with a fairly cloudy and cool Monday. Some models show spotty showers/drizzle, which makes sense given that we will still be on the fringe of the effects of an area of low pressure to our east. However, any precip that forms will be very isolated and light. After morning lows in the upper 30s, highs will top out in the upper 40s (50 at most) tomorrow afternoon.
What seemed like an endless slide down the “slippery slope” of cold air has finally ended! An area of high pressure has gained control of our weather, which will keep comfortable temperatures in store through the weekend! Get ready for middle 40s tomorrow, then lower to middle 50s for the weekend! I’ll have a full forecast update, plus my latest 7-day outlook, by 7pm!
After our first taste of milder weather in what seems like ages, the cold is back. A strengthening ULL (upper-level low) and associated cold front will continue to slide SE towards the tri-state through Wednesday, bringing with it the threat of snow showers and much colder air. Given the large amount of lift/energy progged to be overhead, some of the snow showers will be rather vigorous, with reduced visibilities at times a good bet. Expect only scattered flurries/snow showers through midday, then becoming more widespread by afternoon. Given that temps will top out above freezing tomorrow afternoon, roads will remain mainly wet. Once the front moves through (late-afternoon), expect temps to fall below freezing, resulting in areas of re-freezing on roads (along with light accumulations of snow). Tomorrow evening’s commute may be tricky, so allow for extra time to get to your destination. Light snow will then continue on-and-off through midday Thu, with minor additional accumulations likley. Just like tomorrow evening’s commute, Thu AM may be a bit tricky with slick spots and reduced visibilities being likely. By midday Thu, most areas will have total accumulations on the order of 1-2″, with spotty locations receiving 3″ (esp NNE of metro). While not a large event, delays (even closures in rural districts) are a possibility on Thu, so make sure to check your favorite local media outlets for the latest delay/closure lists before heading out.
Just when you thought we couldn’t POSSIBLY see more snow after the three consecutive winter storms, there is more in the forecast! Friday looks to be a rather nice day overall with partly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 30s. Our first shot of wintry weather arrives on Saturday as a weak disturbance passes through the tri-state, bringing with it light snow. Given the marginal surface temperatures, accumulation on roads is not expected (up to an inch on grassy/metal surfaces). Attention then turns to a potentially significant winter storm for Sun afternoon through Mon. An area of low pressure is progged to slide out of the Plains into the Ohio Valley. At this point in time, I’m thinking we run the risk of icing issues (freezing rain/sleet) as there looks to be a sneaky layer of low-level cold air in place for much if not all of the event (esp along/north of the Ohio River). Given the thick snowcover in place, I’m having a hard time believing that the warm air takes over as easily as some models are showing. Given that we are still three days out from showtime, much can change. The spread of various model solutions is rather large, which makes it hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen. By tomorrow evening, I believe that a solution should be ironed out, thus I’ll have a more confident forecast. This storm has a lot of potential, so STAY TUNED!
Light to moderate (ocassionally heavy) snow will continue through the evening hours. Most areas have recieved a solid 5-7″, with isolated spots picking up close to 10″. Expect another 3″ or so by the time the main event winds down, which will generate storm totals of 8-12″. Light snow will continue off-and-on through the night with additional light accumulations of 1-3″. Most roads are rather nasty across the tri-state, including highways/expressways. With temps falling to around 20 tonight, expect any slush or water on the roads (melting due to salt) to re-freeze, creating very hazardous conditions for the morning commute. Hamilton County is currently under a LEVEL TWO SNOW EMERGENCY, which basically means that nobody should be on the roads unless absolutely necessary. I expect all schools to be closed tomorrow, with many rural districts closing through Thu.
Snow continues to move into the tri-state, with the heaviest band headed our way:
The leading edge of that heavier band will slide into the metro area by 7am. Expect heavy rates of 1-2″ per hour with this band, which will result in quick accumulations.
Light to moderate snow is closing in, with the west side already reporting a coating on all surfaces.
There is a band of heavy snow from Louisville, KY to Greensburg, IN headed this way (far left edge of picture).
The afternoon model package has arrived, and shows a very impressive output! Most spit out a good 7-10″ across the area, with isolated 11-12″ amounts! Everything is right on track with my forecast, so there are no real changes to talk about. The ULL (upper-level low), currently located over central MO, will continue to slide southeast then east as it approaches the tri-state. Most models track it through north-central KY, which is exactly where it needs to go to have a large snow event across the tri-state. The Gulf of Mexico is now open for business as the low is already tapping moisture from it. This added moisture will allow for the snow to become very widespread and heavy. We’re still on track for a start time between midnight-3am, with scattered snow showers possible at any time before that. By sunrise, expect a solid 2-3″ on the ground, with several more inches to come after that!
Another winter storm is headed for the tri-state! The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING effective midnight tonight through 6am Tue. An area of low pressure, currently sliding SE out of the Plains, will move in late tonight. Expect snow, heavy at times, to develop after midnight (though flurries/snow showers are possible this evening). The snow will continue through much of Mon as the area of low pressure (and associated ULL) slides through. Given the amount of energy and lift progged to be in place by the models, spotty thundersnow (thunder/lightning w/ blinding snowfall rates) is a possibility. The heaviest snow will begin to wind down tomorrow evening, with occassional light snow continuing through much of Tuesday. All in all, expect a solid 6-10″ of snow area-wide from this storm, with localized amounts close to a foot. Given the fact that most areas already have a foot or so on the ground from pervious storms, clean-up will be a much longer process this time. There is just not much room left to clear/plow another large snowfall. As you all know, I don’t “chicken little” weather events unless truely necessary. This is one of those times. Due to the reasons stated above, this storm will more than likely shut-down the city and its surrounding communties. Assuming my forecast verifies, I see no way any schools will be open on Tue. It’s “Kroger-time” if you haven’t done so already…
What a storm! The main event dropped a solid 4-7″ across the entire tri-state through midday Tue, with hazardous road conditions present for a good portion of the day. The lull in the action ended Tue evening as a heavy burst of snow pushed into the tri-state, dropping a quick inch and producing whiteout conditions. Since that burst, we have seen a general light snow, which is further aggravating the clean-up efforts (helping to re-freeze the water on roads). To make matters worse, most locations have fallen into the low teens, which is making salt worthless (becomes ineffective below 15). On top of that, winds have been very gusty (40mph+ gusts), causing significant blowing/drifting. Another batch of moderate to heavy snow is closing in on the tri-state from the west, and should be overhead by 3am. Like earlier Tue evening, expect another quick inch or two of accumulation, with near-whiteout conditions being a good bet. By midday, most areas will have received another 2-3″ of snow on top of the impressive totals from yesterday. I expect all schools to be closed, as most roads will be slick at best. Hamilton County remains under a LEVEL TWO SNOW EMERGENCY, which means that travel is strongly discouraged (unless it’s ABSOLUTELY necessary). The snow will wind down by this afternoon, but the wind will not. Expect significant blowing/drifting through the day with gusts exceeding 40mph being the norm. If you absolutely have to travel, make sure you take it slow and allow extra time to get to your destination…
