Cincy ForecastDaily Weather Updates and Analysis

I hope everyone has enjoyed the holiday season thus far! By now, we are all pretty used to this active weather pattern, which shows no signs of ending. Both the northern and southern jets have been working in tandem to provide constant bouts of precipitation and shots of cold air. This upcoming week features a very complex storm setup, as well as a grand finale of bitterly cold to end the week/send us into 2010!

Tue
High pressure will briefly gain control for Tuesday, allowing skies to clear a bit and temps to moderate slightly. Enjoy it, as changes are soon to follow!

Wed-Fri
Complexity in the forecast begins on Wednesday. A storm system, currently developing in Mexico, will begin to slowly slide ENE towards the Deep South (which will affect the tri-state in two rounds). This will allow for the development of rain/snow showers by Wednesday evening. Given that temps will be above freezing for a majority of round one, the snow will have a hard time accumulating. The precip will continue through midday Thursday (when I expect a brief lull). By Thursday night, the storm system will really begin to organize to our east, allowing for precip to resume across the tri-state (round two). Given the copious amount of model uncertainty regarding this stage of the storm’s development, the forecacast becomes rather blurry. For starters, the track of the low is crucial for what type of precip we will receive, as well as how heavy it will be. The “cone of uncertainty” for this storm’s track is rather large, ranging from off the east coast to the OH/PA border. The next vital aspect is how quickly, if at all, phasing occurs. Put simply, phasing occurs when the northern and southern branches of the jet stream converge. When this happens, cold air is able to spill into the storm, allowing for some areas to receive impressive wintry weather. Many of today’s models want to phase this storm well to our east, which means that we receive little in the way of wintry weather. However, the models have been trending westward with the track of the storm over the past several models runs. If this trend continues, the tri-state will be in a prime spot for accumulating snow, possibly heavy. I will definitely monitor the latest info regarding this storm, and will pass it onto you in a timely manner!

Sat-Mon
The potentially major storm will continue to slide away and deepen on Saturday, leaving the begginings of a nasty cold outbreak in its wake. A strong area of high pressure is progged to slide south from Canada on Saturday, allowing temps to really tumble. Additionally, the pressure gradient between the deepening Nor’Easter and the strong high will allow for very breezy conditions to develop (likely wind advisory criteria or higher). With temps rapidly falling through the 20s, wind chills will be in the single digits or lower, creating unpleasant and potentially dangerous conditions. If the storm does indeed lay down some snowcover, expect those values to be even lower. Given the strong winds, the typical LES (Lake-Effect Snow) belts will be cranking. I expect some of those bands to make their way into the tri-state (esp northern sections), along with general CAA (Cold Air Advection) snow showers, which may produce some additional light accumulations. Winds will begin to subside a bit for Sunday/Monday, though temps will still be very cold (highs not making it out of the lower-middle 20s).