Sunny today…MCS tomorrow?
Posted by Trevor Cole in Daily Weather Updates on 12-05-2009
Look for another sunny and warm day today across the tri-state! Highs will reach the lower to middle 70s! After falling into the middle 50s tonight, we will yet again soar into the middle 70s for tomorrow afternoon! Precip wise, tomorrow looks to be interesting. There is a ton of forecast model inconsistency to dig through on the forecasting end, which always makes things difficult. The GFS (my model of choice…usually) is showing a nasty MCS rolling through tomorrow afternoon, likely bringing with it heavy rain/severe weather. However, that is the only model showing said MCS impacting our area. In a normal case, I would denounce the outlier model run and focus on what the majority of the runs are showing. However, the GFS was really the only model to pick up on the nasty derecho/MCS that rolled to our west/southwest last week. Thus, I am not as skeptical of the solution it is showing. Warm fronts tend to become fairly active during this time of year, which is another reason I am having doubts that the GFS truely is the outlier on this one…
