After a weekend filled with gusty winds, rain, snow, and cold temps, Monday looks to be much quieter. An area of high pressure will be sliding out of the Plains, which will help to aid in breaking up the clouds, allowing the sun to be out in full force! However, due to the fact that the high is coming down from Canada, cold temps will be able to slide right into the Tri-State! I expect high temps on Monday to be around 30 degrees! BRRRR!
That big blob of clear skies is headed our way, which will really make for a beautiful Monday area-wide!
A storm system has been showing up on the models for the last couple of days (for this coming Thu/Fri). Some of the runs were spitting out over 2″ of rain across the area! I will keep my eyes on this potential heavy rain/severe weather threat over the coming days!
Okay…get ready for a wild ride…
A deepening area of low pressure will slide to our north on Wednesday, allowing for southerly/southwesterly winds to pump into the tri-state. Expect mostly cloudy skies, along with periods of showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two. I do not expect any of the thunderstorms to be strong or severe, which is good news! Anticipate temps to top out in the lower 50s area-wide for Wednesday, before plummeting into the middle 20s for Wednesday night!
Thursday and Friday look to be cold with highs in the 20s and 30s! A few snow showers and flurries are possible on Thursday, but no accumulation is expected.
The next big weather story comes into play for Friday night and Saturday. An area of low pressure is forecasted to drop out of Canada (clipper system), which will allow for the development of light snow. As the storm system really closes in on the tri-state, areas of moderate to heavy snow will become likely, with significant accumulations a possibility! The forecast models from today (in particular the GFS), have been showing a rather significant storm, with some areas around the tri-state receiving 4-6″+ of snowfall! HOWEVER, the possible snowstorm is still several days away, so the models will most certainly be waffleing back and forth with the track, which as usual, is very crucial for how much snowfall we receive. If the low tracks through central/north-central Kentucky, we are game for a solid 4-6″+ of snowfall! However, if the low pressure center tracks right over us or to our north, the amounts drop off rather significantly. Please continue to check back here over the next several days as I will be able to fine-tune the details on this upcoming potential winterstorm!
After a decent weekend, the rain is back! An area of low pressure will slide through the Plains, then across the Great Lakes region, dragging a strong cold front through the Tri-State! Ahead of this cold front, warm/moist air will pump into the area. The strength of the low/front, coupled with the moisture, will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms (after midnight tonight-tomorrow evening). At this time, we do run the risk for some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, depending on how much heating/instability we receive tomorrow. After the front passes through, temps will plummet, allowing for spotty snow showers/flurries on Thursday.
The forecast models (in particular the GFS) have been showing a decent clipper system tracking through the area on Saturday, dumping up to 6″ in spots! However, given that the system is still several days away, much can (and likely will) change. So, don’t worry too much about the snow threat this early in the game, but rather keep checking back here for the very latest on its fruition…
Well, after the major high winds impacted the area yesterday (which I warned you about days in advance), we are back into a bit of chilly weather! Friday looks to contain mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s!
After a band of moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds moved through earlier this afternoon, the main “wind-show” has yet to begin! An area of low pressure to our west is rapidly deepening, which is causing the gradient (between low pressure to our west and high pressure to our southeast) to really tighten, allowing for the development of strong to damaging winds! Reports to our southwest include gusts in excess of 70mph! If winds to those levels are observed here in the tri-state (which is looking more and more likely), expect widespread power outages and downed trees! Batten down the hatches…
A very windy and likely damaging event is on the way! As a strong area of low pressure slides to our northwest, the pressure gradient (between the low pressure to our NW and high pressure off the SE coast) will be darn near EXTREME across the Ohio Valley! Even without any thunderstorms, expect widespread wind gusts of 50-60mph (even higher in some spots) during the day tomorrow and through tomorrow night. Now if that isn’t bad enough, toss in a squall line (band of severe thunderstorms) for tomorrow afternoon/evening, and we are looking at a high threat for widespread power outages and falling trees/limbs! There is an enhanced threat for damage/power outages due to trees being weakened by September’s windstorm and the countless heavy ice/snow events we have seen this winter! PLEASE take this time to secure/bring in any loose objects outside, as well as to gather flashlights and candles in the event of a power outage!
I hope you enjoy the light showers this weekend, because next week is looking NASTY! I just analyzed the latest GFS (forecast model) run, and boy oh boy are we in for a wild ride! Take a look at early next week: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108m.gif
Note the area of low pressure over Minnesota, and the associated band of moderate to heavy rain stretching through the tri-state. That will be round one (weaker/lighter). Round two, on the other hand, looks to come through with a big punch! Take a look at the GFS’s output for the second storm as it really cranks up: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_150m.gif
Note the low pressure area “bombing out” (rapidly deepening) just to our NNW! That is some serious power right there, folks! All of that energy, combined with the warm/moist air, will really help to crank out some serious rainfall (likely in inches), as well as the threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms! Honestly, I was startled by what the GFS showed! It is not often that you see two storms of such decent/strong intensity affecting areas in such a rapid succession! However, being that these storm systems are still several days away, much can change. However, if the models continue to show this output, watch out for a widespread damaging wind event and flooding rains…
I am very pleased to announce the arrival of my new webshow…COLEd FRONT! This new show, which will replace the former “Trackin’ Weather with Trevor” webcast, is going to contain a TON of info! From tomorrow’s outlook, to a sneek peak of the next season’s weather, COLEd FRONT will stand alone in the world of weather webshows! A pretty bold claim, eh? Well, that is how strongly and positively I feel about this new show! You are probably used to the standard three minute television weather cast, in which the forecaster doesn’t have time to give you too many details. That is one of the big ways that COLEd FRONT will be unique! My webshows will have no time limit, and no end to how much I can explain to YOU! Instead of just giving you the basic info, on COLEd FRONT, I will explain WHY the atmosphere is acting/will act a certain way! In the end, my goal is to leave you with a better understanding and appreciation for the atmosphere after every show!
Show schedule…every Sunday Night and Thursday Night @ 7:30pm EDT!
Wow! Most areas across the tri-state saw some very hefty snowfall amounts (4-9″)! If you remember, last night I told you guys about one of the forecast models showing upwards of 7″+ of snow? Well, what seemed out-landish wound up verifying quite nicely! Roads are very bad out there, so PLEASE do not go out and travel unless it is an emergency! School-wise tomorrow, most schools in the immediate tri-state will be closed…
